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Baseball Betting Tips: After Switching the MLB Baseballs, Triple-A Scoring is Way Up


Over the last few seasons, it’s been widely speculated — and heavily researched — that baseballs used at the MLB level were “juiced.” Hell, we’re not even out of April — a month notorious for pitcher friendly weather — and MLB’s home run rate (1.33 per game) is at an all-time high. And if you’re in need a further proof, look no further than MLB’s little brother, Triple-A. Heading into this year, Minor League Baseball announced that both Triple A’s leagues would use MLB baseballs for the 2019 season. The results thus far? Let’s just say more than a few baseballs have left the yard.

Even if the Triple-A home run rate doesn’t increase with warmer weather, at the current rate Triple-A would see 1,200 additional home runs compared to last season. It would mean that the average Triple-A team would hit 158 home runs this season. Last year, Triple-A teams averaged 117 home runs and only three of the 30 teams hit 158 or more home runs. Right now, the average pitcher’s ERA in Triple-A baseball is 5.01. Last year it was 4.25.

As always with these types of findings, what does it mean for bettors? The good news is there is a market for Triple-A games. It’s not much (5Dimes, Heritage, and Jazz to name a few) and the limits are low (typically $200-$300) but it’s something. So if you’re looking to pick up a couple extra units this baseball season, maybe take a look at playing a few Triple-A games over the total — especially once the weather warms up.