MLB Betting News and Notes 7/27
After last Thursday’s opening day doubleheader and Friday’s full slate, outside of there being no fans, bettors were treated to a little familiarity. And the overall play looked a lot like the first few days of a normal 162-game season. But the good times wouldn’t last long as MLB hit its first of many potholes with nearly half of the Miami Marlins testing positive for COVID-19 — an unsurprising event and certainly not the last of its nature.
In terms of betting results, albeit a very small sample, there were a few things that stood out.
Games involving National League teams, who are now using a DH, trended heavily towards the UNDER with a record of 16-28-2 O/U (7.98 runs per game). On the opposite end of the spectrum was a deluge of OVERS in AL vs. AL games (22-12-2 O/U, 10 runs per game). Overall, totals have gone 40-46-4 O/U with an average game score of 8.6 runs. Big favorites, something that has been very lucrative over the past few seasons, haven’t fared well. Chalk of -200 or more is 7-8 -13.6 units. And after getting blitzed their first two games by a combined score of 17-2, the San Francisco Giants fired back with back-to-back wins over the Dodgers as +320 and +300 underdogs.
With the roof closed, Texas’ brand new Globe Life Field produced three never-in-doubt UNDERS. In three games vs. Colorado, there were only 13 runs scored. Texas’ Joey Gallo called the new stadium as a “pitcher’s park.”
“I assumed it would be a pitcher’s park,” Gallo said. “I said that four months ago. The first two games you can tell center field and the gaps are going to play really, really deep. You can already see a little bit of a look of shock on a guys’ faces as they round first base when they crush a ball and it gets not even to the warning track.
“We may have to play a little bit more small ball, moving runners over and execute to win games instead of relying on the home run,” Gallo said. “We have a great pitching staff, so, as of now, the stadium will help us, I guess.”
There appears to be some varying opinion on “action” vs. “listed pitchers.” Prominent sportsbook BetCRIS decided to go the “action” route.
Unless otherwise stated, all baseball wagers – MLB, college, softball, and foreign pro leagues – are now “Action” wagers. “Listed Pitchers” is no longer being offered. This applies to sides, totals, Run Lines, team totals, first five innings and inning-by-inning props.
*all wagers have action at the confirmed price. For example, if you selected a team at +200, but due to a pitching change, their price drops to +180, your bet is still locked in at +200.
While a few offscreens have canceled pregame bets due to a switch at starting pitcher.
Other sportsbooks have been making adjustments on the fly. BetOnline changed its policy on when a game is official in terms of straight moneyline wagers.
For MLB games starting on Sunday, July 26th we will revert back to our old rules.
Moneyline bets will once again have action after the gm goes 5 innings; 4.5 innings if the home team is up.
The game NO LONGER has to go 8.5/9 innings for Moneyline bets to have action
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) July 25, 2020
Injuries, particularly those to starting pitchers — perhaps not being ready — have started to pop up. After a monster workload last season, Stephen Strasburg reportedly felt numbness in his arm though may make his next start. Justin Verlander got labled with the dreaded “forearm tightness” diagnosis. A.J. Puk was placed on the 10-day DL with shoulder tightness. Clayton Kershaw is out with a bad back. Reynaldo Lopez left his last start with a bum shoulder. The same situation happened to Corey Kluber. No matter what the format, early season arm injuries are obligatory. But coupled with COVID-19, it won’t take much for a once strong rotation or bullpen to be gutted.