MLB Handicapping: How Do Teams Fare After a No-Hitter?
Since 2004, there have been 42 no-hitters thrown in MLB. The most recent of which took place last night in Oakland as Mike Fiers fired the second no-no of his career. A no-hitter is a relatively rare occurrence, one that over the last decade happens on average around three times per season. We however were still curious as to how teams fare AFTER getting no-hit to see if there was any sort of potential betting angle to key in on. After some database work, here’s what we discovered.
Over the last 16 years, there were 42 traditional no-hitters thrown and three additional that were achieved “by committee.” The team that suffered the cruel fate didn’t fare much better the next time out with a straight up record of 18-27 (-11.3 units). Totals wise, there were 25 unders vs. 19 overs though those results are somewhat skewed after a string of eight straight unders from 2007-10. On the surface, one would think that a team that falls victim to a no-hitter isn’t very good offensively but the results perhaps point towards the fact that the team that threw the no-hitter obviously didn’t need to utilize its bullpen meaning fresh arms the following night. The exception to this being the aforementioned “committee” no-hitter and if the event took place at the end of a series and the opponent changed.
Tonight, the Oakland A’s will again play host to the Cincinnati Reds with Sonny Gray taking on Brett Anderson. The betting markets seem to think the Reds will bounce back as a 20 cent move has the game currently lined at a near pick ’em. The total was also bet down from 8.5 to as low as 8. Jeff Nelson is listed as the home plate umpire. Nelson is historically a “neutral” ump with a near dead even 145-142-20 O/U mark dating back to 2010. He was however behind the plate for Hisashi Iwakuma’s no-hitter against the Orioles in 2015.