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UFC Fight Night 176 Betting Preview: Woodley vs. Burns


The fourth UFC event since the Coronavirus pandemic began is scheduled for Saturday. Headlining the event will be Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns in what should be a highly entertaining Welterweight bout. The card features a total of 11 bouts. There is a nice mix of veterans and up-and-comers on this card. Plenty of highly touted risers will also be featured as there are seven fighters with one or zero losses; all of which will fight in the final seven fights. If you haven’t heard of some of these names before this weekend, get ready to remember them moving forward. 

Preliminary Card 

Featherweight: Chris Gutierrez (14-4-1) vs. Vince Morales (9-4) -120 

Bantamweight: Louis Smolka (16-6) vs. Casey Kenney (13-2-1) -285

Flyweight: Tim Elliot (15-10-1) -175 vs. Brandon Royval (10-4) 

Light Heavyweight: Jamahal Hill (7-0) -130 vs. Klidson Abreu (15-4) 

Women’s Flyweight: Katlyn Chookagian (13-3) vs. Antonina Schevchenko (8-1) -140

Main Card 

Women’s Strawweight – Mackenzie Dern (7-1) -450 vs. Hannah Cifers (10-4) 

In our second women’s bout of the night, two American Strawweight fighters face off as Mackenzie Dern takes on Hannah Cifers. Dern is coming off of her first career loss when she lost in a decision to Amanda Ribas back in October. Cifers is also coming off of a loss, a knockout defeat against Angela Hill back in January. Both women are 27 years old and Dern has both a two inch height and reach advantage. Cifers loss to Angela Hill is nothing to be ashamed of as she looked like a potential title contender in her most recent bout, despite losing in a decision to Claudia Gadelha.  This should be a close contest that will likely go to a decision. Cifers may have the value here at more than +300 as long as she can keep the fight standing. If Dern gets Cifers to the ground, it could be over in the first round. 

Lightweight – Roosevelt Roberts (9-1) -350 vs. Brok Weaver (15-4) 

Two Americans will face off in a Lightweight bout as Roosevelt Roberts takes on Brok Weaver. Roberts is coming off of three straight decision bouts, including his only career loss two fights ago. Weaver is coming off of a DQ win against Rodrigo Vargas back in February. Roberts is the more dangerous fighter in this bout, although both have a 71 inch reach. Roberts is two inches taller than Weaver and can win a fight both standing and throwing and via submission, as evident by his three guillotine choke wins.  Roberts is the all-around better fighter and should be able to get past Weaver. It may come down to a judge’s decision but don’t be surprised if Roberts gets the knockout punch late in the bout. 

Catchweight (150 lbs): Billy Quatantillo (13-2) -140 vs. Spike Carlyle (9-1) 

In a rare “Catchweight” bout, Billy Quatantillo will take on Spike Carlyle. Quarantillo is coming off of a submission victory against Jacob Kilburn. However, Kilburn took the fight on just six days’ notice. Carlyle is coming off of a first-round knockout of Aalon Cruz just 90 days ago. Carlyle is one of the more hyped fighters of this card and is the name that many expect to be talking about Sunday morning. He is four years younger than Quatantillo and appears to be one of the more dangerous punchers on the rise in the UFC. Carlyle is the small underdog but appears to be a popular bet for this weekend. Look for him to secure a knockout victory as he looks to continue to impress and climb up the ranks in the UFC. 

Heavyweight – Blagoy Ivanov (18-3) pk vs. Augusto Sakai (14-1-1) 

In our only Heavyweight bout of the evening, Bulgarian Blagoy Ivanov will take on Brazilian Augusto Sakai. Ivanov is coming off of a split decision loss to Derrick Lewis. Sakai is on a three-fight win streak after his first-round knockout out Marcin Tybura. When this fight starts, you will notice one thing. Sakai is the much bigger fighter in this bout. He has a four-inch reach advantage and is also four inches taller than Ivanov. Also, he has about a 15-pound weight advantage on most nights as well. This could be a heavy hitter brawl as both fighters are coming in at minus odds as bookmakers are torn. Sakai is the bigger fighter and has a knockout win against Chase Sherman and also a decision victory over Andrei Arlovski. His only loss is a split decision to Cheick Konga three years ago. The bigger Sakai should have the advantage in this one. However, Heavyweight bouts  can end on one punch either way at any given time. Look for Sakai to have the best chance at doing so but don’t be surprised to see a big counter from Ivanov to turn this bout around. 

Welterweight – Tyron Woodley (19-4-1) -190 vs. Gilbert Burns (18-3) 

Our main event of the evening will be a Welterweight bout between Americans Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns. Two of the top seven Welterweights in the world, the winner of this bout could find themselves on the short list to take on Kamaru Usman for a title shot later this year. Woodley is coming off of a loss to Usman back in March of last year. A rebound win here can get him in talks for a rematch. Burns is on a five-fight win streak that features both a knockout and submission victory. While Woodley hasn’t fought since March of 2019, Burns fought just two a couple of months ago in March of this year. Burns is a BJJ black belt and a solid wrestler. He has the better ground game than Woodley, who is five years the elder in this bout. While Burns comes in an inch taller than Woodley, Woodley actually has the three-inch reach advantage. However, both fighters have a nice mix of knockout and submission victories in their careers. Woodley was dismantled by Usman last year when he lost his title. Unfortunately for Woodley, Burns shares the same camp as Usman, so Burns will have a big tactical advantage here. Burns is making a run at the top of the division and has the momentum on his side. However, Woodley is the -190 favorite here. While he is 38 years old, Woodley is still a championship-caliber fighter. Burns provides the value and a lot of signs seem to point in his direction. However, don’t count out the championship heart of Woodley. While Burns provides the value and flash in this fight, Woodley could find a way to edge this one out via decision. It all depends which Woodley shows up Saturday. The one who wants to try and reclaim his title, or the one who still hasn’t recovered from his title loss last year. 

Brandon Wittmeyer

Brandon Wittmeyer is a professional gambler in Las Vegas and has earned a living doing so for the last 15 years. He specializes in college football, college basketball, NFL and mixed martial arts. He also educates and advises others on many gambling topics including sports betting and poker. Brandon is featured occasionally on the Vegas Sports Information Network (VSIN) and you can hear him on podcasts regularly. He has written for Card Player magazine in the past about betting and poker strategies. His poker resume includes winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet and a WSOP Circuit Ring.