NBA Handicapping: League Has Been Trending Under the Total
A few weeks back, we discussed the much publicized spike in scoring and pace in the NBA. At the time, totals were an incredible 27-12 O/U. Since then, things have changed considerably.
Scoring as of 10/22: 113.3 ppg
Scoring as of 11/11: 110.7 ppg
Pace as of 10/22: 102.1
Pace as of 11/11: 100.3
Offensive Rating as of 10/22: 110.0
Offensive Rating as of 11/11: 109.5
Totals YTD: 93-93-3 O/U
Totals since October 22 have gone 66-81-3 O/U. That’s a nice healthy profit of +13.9 units. There are numerous reasons for the decline. For starters, scoring and pace are almost always up the first week or so of a season. Players aren’t in the best of shape to defend for an entire game, refs are asked by the league to emphasize more freedom of movement which obviously helps the offense, and the overall atmosphere of a lot of games has an exhibition-like vibe. As we near the completion of the first month of play, things have calmed down. Players and coaches have had more time to adjust to one another and there’s much more film to scout opposing teams. I’ve even noticed a few games where refs have swallowed their whistles for extended stretches. The totals that went flying over the first week of the season are now finding ways to go under thanks to the aforementioned adjustment and of course market inflation. In fact, last week, there was a two-night stretch where 13 of 14 games went under the total! As an NBA bettor, it’s a constant battle to stay ahead of oddsmakers and the betting markets. Since I wrote that article, my clients and I have enjoyed a lot of success playing unders (6-2). We’ll be looking for more profits — over, under, or side — in the coming months.
Erin Rynning has produced 13th consecutive winning seasons in the NBA and is off to a strong 16-10 62% start. Lock in seven days of ER’s NBA action for only $99.