An Early Look at Next Year’s Super Bowl LV Betting Odds
We’re only a few days removed from another Super Bowl but sportsbooks have been quick to post odds for next year. Below is a quick breakdown of Super Bowl LV’s odds courtesy of Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook.
Kansas City +500 – Obligatory that the champs were installed as the favorite. And outside of the Super Bowl “hangover” angle, the Chiefs are poised to be contenders for multiple seasons moving forward.
Baltimore +800 – The Ravens were at one point, late in the season, the top power rated team in the NFL. They finished first in DVOA offense and fourth in defense. They were also around +200 to win SBLIV at the start of the playoffs. The Ravens will no doubt be on a mission after a disappointing end to a wonderful season. May be the best number bettors can get.
San Francisco +800 – The 49ers are going to be fine. But 8-1 fine? Playing a first place schedule, we can almost guarantee you’ll be able to get better odds at some point.
New Orleans +1000 – This line strongly suggests Drew Brees, who is north of 40 years old, will be back and remain healthy. Rumblings that the Hall of Fame quarterback may retire.
Dallas +1200 – Apparently Mike McCarthy is worth a ton to a team’s future odds. The Cowboys finished 6th in total DVOA and yet 8-8 SU; a profile that in most cases would offer a “buy low” opportunity. Instead, Dallas is the fifth betting choice. Even at 20-1, you can question the value.
New England +1400 – Tom Brady?!?!
Pittsburgh +1600 – Another number predicated on an aging quarterback not only returning but regaining pre-injury form. The Steelers overachieved last season (18th DVOA, 8-8 SU) and with Baltimore the class of the AFC North, you’d should rightfully expect better than 16-1.
Philadelphia +2000 – The Eagles backed into the playoffs only to be stymied at home vs. the Seahawks, 17-9. After winning the Super Bowl two years ago, Phily posted back-to-back 9-7 seasons and have really forced bettors to question whether the regression was bad luck or real.
Green Bay +2000 – Aaron Rodgers feels the window to win a Super Bowl is still open. He must be basing it on last year’s (fradulent?) 13-3 record and not this disaster.
Seattle +2000 – A fair price on a good but not great team.
LA Rams +2500 – The Super Bowl “hangover” is real! The markets have no doubt soured on what was once the “it” team in the NFL. Tough division to feel fully confident things will turn around. That said, 25-1 with the Rams or 12-1 with the Cowboys?
Chicago +2500 – You don’t need an elite quarterback to post a winning record in the NFL. Hell, you don’t need one to reach the Super Bowl. But it certainly helps if you are going to be the last team standing. Like a lot of teams priced in the middle of the pack, the Bears have more issues than just Trubisky. But last year’s hard regression makes 25-1 seem a little iffy.
Minnesota +2500 – Not bad odds for a team that finished seventh in DVOA, no? You can certainly envision this team making the playoffs again which in this price range isn’t a guarantee.
Cleveland +3000 – Is there anything more volatile than the Browns’ stock? Kitchens was no doubt overwhelmed though Kevin Stefanski is regarded by some as a “safe hire” rather than a game changer. There’s obviously talent and obviously a lot of baggage. From AFC North favorites to 30-1!
LA Chargers +4000 – Perhaps Rivers leaving will be good for both parties. But regardless of who is under center, the black cloud surrounding what it essentially a “homeless” organization makes it very tough even at reasonable odds.
Indianapolis +4000 – Andrew Luck returning? Andrew Luck not returning.
Houston +4000 – This price depends on how much you believe in analytics. On one hand the Texans have loads of talent and play in a division with no elite teams meaning getting into the playoffs is doable. On the other, they ranked below the Bears, Buccaneers, Falcons, Colts, and Steelers in DVOA and were woodshedded by the Chiefs in the postseason.
Tennessee +4000 – As an organization, the Titans are on a lot better footing than some teams with much shorter odds. Fifth in SOS, 9th in DVOA, and yet 40-1?
Buffalo +4000 – Similar to the Titans, the Bills aren’t sexy, but moving in the right direction. In such a soft division, it sets up well for Buffalo to once again be in the playoff hunt; something that is a big hurdle for a lot of 40-1 squads.
Las Vegas +4000 – We’re actually surprised this price isn’t shorter. It has to be the most popular futures ticket in Vegas.
Atlanta +5000 – Imagine for a second a scenario in which Drew Brees decides to hang it up and the Falcons don’t start the season 1-7. 50-1 not looking all that bad, is it?
Denver +6000 – It’s Drew Lock time, baby!
Tampa Bay +6000 – If Tampa can go 7-9 with Winston, they can certainly go 9-7 with Brady or Rivers and slip into the playoffs.
NY Jets +8000 – No comment.
Arizona +8000 – If the Cardinals were in the AFC South or NFC East, you could certainly picture Murray carrying the offense to 9-7. Not likely in the NFC West.
NY Giants +8000 – The perfect bet to make if you like teams playing stone age football and suddenly made aware there is a world of analytics to take advantage of.
Detroit +8000 – In all seriousness, what’s the gap between the Lions with a healthy Stafford and say, the Bears? Apparently +5500.
Jacksonville +10000 – Now that Coughlin’s gone, the team’s boost in morale has to be worth at least something.
Carolina +10000 – Matt Rhule and a healthy and motivated Cam Newton at 100-1 is at least intriguing.
Cincinnati +10000 – Can’t help but feel like the Bengals are going to somehow NOT end up with Joe Burrow.
Miami +10000 – Oddsmakers apparently not fooled by the Dolphins’ semi-respectable 5-11 record.
Washington +20000 – When you are +10000 MORE than a team (Miami) that finished the season with one of the worst DVOA ratings in history, it indicates you’re the undisputed worst organization in the NFL…by margin.