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Arizona Goes With Rosen; Low Totals Continue to Cash


The Josh Rosen era is underway in Arizona with the rookie slated to start Sunday’s home game against Seattle. Rosen came in relief of Sam Bradford late in the fourth quarter of last week’s 16-14 loss to Chicago. He finished 4-of-7 for 36 yards and threw an interception. Rosen obviously spent time with the first unit during practice this week and also did during preseason camp with Bradford not at full strength due to a knee injury.

The results for Arizona’s offense through three games are alarming to say the least. They currently rank dead last in the NFL with a -51.7% DVOA. Bradford was able to hit for two touchdown passes in the first quarter against the Bears but the end result was 221 total yards of offense. The competition from a defensive perspective has certainly been tough with the Rams and Bears boasting elite-level stop units. The Seahawks currently rank 6th in defensive DVOA but the schedule comes up light with the Cowboys, Bears, and Broncos grading out below average offensively.

Considering Arizona’s offensive ineptitude and a rookie quarterback now under center, bettors shouldn’t be shocked to see the total for Sunday’s game currently below 40. But playing such a low total under has actually been extremely profitable of late. Over the last five seasons, totals of 39 or less have gone under at a 64% clip.

NFL Over/Under with total of 39 or less
2018: 0-2
2017: 11-15
2016: 3-6
2015: 0-1
2014: 2-5
Total: 16-29 O/U

“We’ve just got to make sure that we’re giving Josh what he can handle. Josh is a very smart guy. He did a tremendous job today in a lot of the things that we were doing,” Wilks said. “We threw a lot at him from a standpoint of the install. He did a great job at the line of scrimmage checking and getting us in the right call from a standpoint of protections with the blitzes, those kinds of things, as well. I thought he looked good today.”

Advantage Group

Advantage Group (formerly Otto Sports) has built its reputation on emphasizing a low volume, high winning percentage approach. The results in college football over the last three seasons are unmatched: 80-39 67% +59.475 units of profit on a 1, 1.5, and 2-unit scale. During that span, nickel bettors took home $26K after service fees. Also impressive is the group’s college basketball track record since 2015: 119-83 59% +32.7 units of profit. Advantage Group also owns strong results in the NBA (800+ plays, 55% winners over the last decade) and NFL (55% since 2012).