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NFL Betting: Oddsmakers and Bettors Show Favoritism Towards Home Teams for Divisional Round


Last week, we discussed the strength of schedule betting angle for the NFL’s Wild Card Round. With Houston, Tennessee, and Seattle all covering, the trend’s record improved to 48-22-2 ATS dating back to 2002.

As for the Divisional Round, there isn’t nearly as strong of a long term profile that we are aware of but the common theme of late has been backing teams at home off of a first round bye. Last season, all four home teams won outright with three of four covering the spread. The previous year, three of the four home teams won and covered. Since 2013, home teams are a strong 22-6 SU but a much more modest 15-12-1 ATS.

Bettors should take caution before firing away blindly on this week’s home chalk as a number of the matchups appear to have “baked in” the bye factor into line and/or the betting markets got involved.

Minnesota at San Francisco
CRIS Opener: San Francisco -6.5
CRIS Current: San Francisco -6.5
Sagarin Power Rating: San Francisco -4.8

Tennessee at Baltimore
CRIS Opener: Baltimore -9.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -9
Sagarin Power Rating: Baltimore -8.6

Houston at Kansas City
CRIS Opener: Kansas City -7.5
CRIS Current: Kansas City -9.5
Sagarin Power Rating: Kansas City -9.4

Seattle at Green Bay
CRIS Opener: Green Bay -3.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -4
Sagarin Power Rating: Green Bay -5.7

Of the four games, only one is a rematch from the regular season. Back in Week 6, Houston got the win in Kansas City, 31-24. The Texans outgained the Chiefs 472-309. More importantly, KC closed -4.5 and is now as high as -10 for Sunday’s contest.

As for the weather, Saturday’s games in San Francisco and Baltimore both show a chance of rain with winds around 15 mph. Green Bay looks mild for this time of year with temps in the high 20’s and no snow or wind. Kansas City could have some wind but nothing too severe while temps expect to be in the low 40’s.