NFL Betting: The Miami Dolphins Are Tanking And Bettors Know It
Unlike college football, you don’t often hear phrases like “Year Zero”, “complete rebuild”, or “tank mode” get tossed around when discussing the NFL. But that’s exactly what is being used to describe this year’s Miami Dolphins. After producing a fraudulent 7-9 record (outscored by 114 points), oddsmakers and the betting markets didn’t think much of the Dolphins during the summer when Week 1’s lines and futures were posted. Miami was lined at 5 wins and +6000 to win the AFC East. But over the last week, whispers of “rebuilding” became reality after they traded Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills for two future first round picks. This of course did not sit well with a number of veteran players.
Shortly after that, the +4.5 Miami held throughout much of the summer for Week 1’s home tilt vs. Baltimore shot up to +7. And despite playing in the AFC East and facing the Jets and Bills twice, Miami’s win total dropped to 4.5.
First-year head coach Brian Flores is saying all the right things in terms of working hard and trying to win football games, but it’s abundantly clear the higher-ups in the organization don’t want this team to even compete let alone win. And not only did they trade two starters but they named this guy the starting quarterback despite snagging Josh Rosen during the offseason.
Tanking is becoming a much more accepted practice in the world of professional sports. Organizations know that the quickest path to success is often times to start from scratch and that means getting rid of aging players and bad contracts, acquiring future assets, and hoping to score big in next year’s draft. What’s interesting about Miami is that Operation Tank 2019 is well documented and well underway and they haven’t even played a regular season game. Typically, tanking tends to take shape midseason after the losses start to mount. Bettors are now left with the unique situation of handicapping a dead nuts bet against team that at some point — and it may have already occurred — will have bet on value. You’ll notice that those -7’s for Baltimore were recently taken out as the market is now settled in at -6.5. But all it will take is one piss poor performance — and it’s coming with Miami’s first four games against Baltimore, New England, Dallas, and the Los Angeles Chargers — and we’ll start to see a real adjustment. In fact, say the Dolphins get manhandled by the Ravens in Week 1, we could see New England laying -14 at Miami in Week 2.