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Super Bowl LIV Betting: Sportsbooks Taking Lopsided Action on the Over


Given the amount of volume bet on the Super Bowl, it’s in a sportsbook’s best interest to generate even action on both sides. That’s rarely if ever achieved however as sportsbooks tend to have a rooting interest for a particular outcome. It’s looking abundantly clear that the under in Super Bowl LIV will be the preferred outcome for oddsmakers. Even with a small fraction of the eventual overall volume currently in play, it’s hard to envision — even with some inevitable buy back/resistance from the sharp community — the public being deterred from placing more bets on the over. And unlike the regular season, the public matters when it comes to adjusting the Super Bowl’s lines. The question is how far, or high in this instance, are sportsbooks willing to go to avoid getting crushed? Go too far and they obviously risk getting “middled.” It’s simply bad business to expose yourself on arguably the most heavily bet sporting event in the world.

Overall, the totals market has settled down some. Remember, CRIS may have opened 51 but other shops opened anywhere from 51.5 to 52.5. And most were pretty quick to move their numbers based on those early opinions. But much of the betting public doesn’t know or care about openers. A majority of bettors saw both conference championships go comfortably over the total meaning it doesn’t matter if it’s 54.5 or 55 or even 56, that’s the way they are betting Super Bowl LIV.

Take a look at some of the lopsided action that has taken place in Las Vegas over the last few days. Our advice? If you do like the under, there’s probably no reason to rush. It’s likely, especially in Las Vegas, that 55.5 or even 56 will be available prior to game day.