Super Bowl LV Betting: Tips on How to Bet Props
Ask any bettor the first thing that comes to their mind in regards to the Super Bowl and the consensus answer is undoubtedly “prop bets.” Born back in the mid-80’s when Las Vegas oddsmakers Art Manteris hung 20-1 on the now famous Refrigerator Perry touchdown prop, they have grown into a behemoth with so many options it’ll make your head spin. Las Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook has long been considered the “originator” of the ever-expanding menu of prop bets. In recent years, up to 60 percent of the Westgate’s handle on the Super Bowl will be wagers placed on various props. For next Sunday’s Super Bowl LV, oddsmaker Jay Kornegay and his staff put together a list of over 1,000 prop bets. Offshore, there are just as many if not more. There bettors have access to some of the more obscure props like postgame Gatorade color or how many times the commentators will mention someone or something specific. In the end, even if you place only a handful of prop bets, it’s hard to not have “action” on virtually every play.
Here are some of the things to look for when handicapping and placing wagers on Super Bowl prop bets.
Arbitrage and middles – There aren’t many sporting events that offer this much opportunity for low and sometimes risk free wagering. With so many different types of sportsbooks and prop bets as far as the eye can see, finding these opportunities isn’t difficult. Take player props for example. Some sportsbooks don’t move a number but rather adjust the juice while others move the number. This can create very favorable “middles.” Same goes for moneyline bets. Will Player X score a touchdown may be +280 for the “yes” at Sportsbook A and -250 for the “no” at Sportsbook B. Yes, it takes time, patience, and multiple outs, but these opportunities are bountiful.
Juice – Recreational bettors like plus-price winners. A $50 bettor loves the chance to triple their money. Most sharp bettors will tell you that they’d rather lay the juice when it comes to props. With so many betting options, sportsbooks will obviously make mistakes and those mistakes will quickly be taken advantage of. When you see a prop bet that opened -110 and is now -140, that’s generally a good indication of a “soft” line. “Chasing” these bets obviously puts more pressure on a bettor to turn a profit but there is typically a good reason for the move.
What Type of Bets to Look For – Serious bettors tend to gravitate towards player props. Number of catches, total yards, tackles, pass attempts, etc. And assuming you have an opinion on the game, you can then focus in on props that are correlative with the outcome. Like the Chiefs and the over? Then it’s logical you’ll have a handful of over bets involving Patrick Mahomes. One bet that has always been popular among the sharper crowd is Will There Be Three Consecutive Scores? The “yes” opened -210 which falls in line with the historical results and implied probability. Perhaps this year has a bit more value considering the total is 56. Lastly, as tempting as they are, try to stay away from the “coin flip” bets. Literally betting the coin flip, even at -102 juice like the Westgate is offering, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Shop Around – Not everyone has 10 sportsbooks at his or her disposal. But even if you have only two or three, it’s worth your time to shop around for the best of the number. Don Best posts the mainstay props on its screen meaning bettors can see what is moving and act accordingly. But there are a lot of props that remain out of the public’s view. Unlike a college basketball total, if someone pops an obscure prop bet at CRIS, the rest of the offshore world doesn’t immediately react. They may eventually catch on but search around enough and you’ll be surprised at some of the “juicy” prices you’ll come across.