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Super Bowl LVI Betting: Market Reacts to High Scoring Conference Championships


And then there were two. The matchup for Super Bowl LVI is set as the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on February 2 in Miami. Both teams had a fairly easy go of it in their respective conference championships with double-digit victories. The offenses were especially potent as the Chiefs fell behind early to the Titans only to quickly rally back with 35 points and over 400 yards while the 49ers were content to run the football to the tune of 285 yards en route to a 37-20 victory over the Packers.

Sportsbooks were quick to post the Super Bowl LVI’s side and total with the initial line a pick ’em and the total 51/51.5. Even with some of the early money coming in on Kansas City (now -1), the initial point spread all but assures the closing line, for a second straight year, will be less than a field goal. Last year, the Rams opened -1.5 though the Patriots were the preferred side as they peaked at -2.5 and closed -2.

The betting storyline thus far for Super Bowl LVI has been the total. As mentioned, most sportsbooks opened 51 or 51.5 only to see a deluge of over money with the line now as high as 54.

The move shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the outcomes of both conference championships. San Francisco-Green Bay opened 44.5 and closed as high as 47 — the market spot on as the game landed 57. Kansas City-Tennessee opened 51.5, was initially bet down to 51, peaked at 53, and closed 51. Even with a scoreless third quarter, the game went over the total with seven minutes remaining.

Interesting to note that this will mark the highest total of the season for San Francisco. Week 1’s game vs. the Buccaneers closed 49. Week 14 and 15’s totals, against two “over” opponents, the Saints and Falcons, closed 45 and 47, respectively.

According to Don Best, 80% of the money thus far has come in on the over. ESPN reported that the biggest bet made in Las Vegas on Sunday night was a six-figure wager on the over at the Westgate SuperBook.